Mitengo ya batri yosungirako mphamvu ikukwera, ndipo kusintha kwa msika kuyenera kudziwidwa pasadakhale

Kubwereranso kwamphamvu kwaposachedwa kwamitengo ya lithiamu carbonate kwayikanso kusungirako mphamvu pamalo owonekera. Chiyambireni kutsika mu June chaka chino, mitengo ya lithiamu carbonate yakwera ndi 36.9% mutangotha ​​​​mwezi umodzi, kubwereranso kumalo opuma a 80,000 yuan / tani kumapeto kwa July. Kuyambira pamenepo, mitengo ya lithiamu yasintha kwambiri. Pofika kumapeto kwa malonda apakhomo pa August 18, mgwirizano wa 2509 wa lithiamu carbonate unatsekedwa pa 89,300 yuan / tani, mpaka 4.86%. Kusinthaku kwamitengo yamitengo sikungopatsa makampani amigodi a lithiamu chiyembekezo, komanso kukuwoneka kuti kunayambitsa kusintha kwa ntchito zosungira mphamvu zomwe zidayimitsidwa ndi zovuta zamitengo.

Ndiye, kodi kukwera kwa mitengo ya lithiamu kungatsitsimutsedi mapulojekiti osungira mphamvu omwe aimitsidwa?

Kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwamitengo ya Lithium ndiko chifukwa cha kusalinganika pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira. Pazaka zingapo zapitazi, mitengo ya lithiamu carbonate yatsika kuchokera ku 230,000 yuan/tani pa nthawi ya 2023 ndandanda ya tsogolo la lithiamu carbonate mpaka pansi pa 70,000 yuan/tani kwa nthawi yoyamba mu April 2025. Tianqi Lithium, mwachitsanzo, wakhala akukumana ndi "kutsika mtengo." Pofuna kuthana ndi kutsika kwamitengo komanso kuchulukirachulukira, makampani amigodi a lithiamu akhazikitsa zochepetsera kupanga ndikuyimitsa. Makampani a migodi a Lifiyamu akunja monga Albemarle ndi Core Lithium, wochita mgodi wa lifiyamu waku Australia, anali oyamba kulengeza kuyimitsa kupanga, kutsatiridwa kwambiri ndi makampani apakhomo. China Mining Resources ikukweza mizere yake yopanga, Jiangte Electric ikuimitsa kupanga kuti ikonzedwe, ndipo makampani ena ku Yichun omwe ali ndi ufulu wa migodi ya lithiamu alamulidwa kuti ayimitse kupanga chifukwa chazovuta. Izi zachepetsa kupezeka kwa lithiamu pamsika, ndikuyika maziko a kubweza kwamitengo. Zosintha pa mbali yofunikira siziyeneranso kunyalanyazidwa. Ngakhale msika wamagalimoto amagetsi atsopano ndi wowoneka bwino mkati ndipo mitengo ndi yofooka, kufunikira kosungirako mphamvu kukupitilirabe.

Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira zochokera ku nkhokwe ya Nthambi ya CESA Energy Storage Applications, kuyambira Januware mpaka Juni 2025, mphamvu yatsopano yosungira mphamvu yaku China idakwera ndi 21.9GW/55.2GWh, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 69.4% (mphamvu) ndi 76.6% (kuthekera). Kufunika kwa zida zolimba kwambiri za lithiamu iron phosphate pamlingo waukulu Selo Yosungira Mphamvus yawonjezeka, ndipo makampani ena awonjezera maulamuliro awo opangira mpaka kotala loyamba la 2026. Kusintha kumeneku pakupereka ndi kufunikira kwagwirizanitsa pamodzi kukwera kwa mitengo ya lithiamu carbonate. Kutsika kwamitengo ya lithiamu kwadzetsa nyengo yatsopano yogwiritsira ntchito kwambiri pamsika wosungira mphamvu. Mphamvu zatsopano zosungira mphamvu zakhala zikukula mofulumira pazaka ziwiri zapitazi. Komabe, ndi mpikisano wowonjezereka wa msika, nkhondo zamtengo wapatali zafinya kwambiri phindu la makampani osungira mphamvu.

Mabatire ambiri osungira mphamvu ndi makampani ophatikiza zosungiramo mphamvu akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zovuta zamtengo wapatali, pomwe ena amakakamizika kutuluka pamsika ndipo ambiri akuletsa mapulani opangira mphamvu zosungira mphamvu. Mabatire Ndi Mphamvu machitidwe osungira. Ntchito zina zosungiramo magetsi zayimitsidwa kapena kuchedwa chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo, kusayembekezera phindu, komanso kusintha kwa malo am'nyumba ndi mayiko ena. Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira kuchokera ku database ya CESA Energy Storage Applications Division, mphamvu zosachepera 26 zosungira mphamvu ndi mapulojekiti amagetsi adathetsedwa kapena kuyimitsidwa kuyambira 2025.

Ntchito zosungira mphamvu zamagetsi zimaphatikizapo matekinoloje monga mabatire a lithiamu-ion, mabatire a sodium-ion, mabatire olimba, ma inverters osungira mphamvu, ndi mapulojekiti ophatikiza makina. Mapulojekiti opangira magetsi akuphatikiza kusungirako mphamvu zodziyimira payekha, kusungirako mphamvu ya solar-to-energy, ndi mpweya woponderezedwa, ndikuyika ndalama zopitilira 10 biliyoni.

Kukwera kwamitengo ya lithiamu kumatha kupereka chiyembekezo pama projekiti oyimitsidwawa. Kubwereza uku kudzakweza mtengo wa cell yosungirako mphamvu komanso mtengo wamakina.
Kuti atseke zotsika mtengo, opanga ena akuyambitsanso kapena kupititsa patsogolo kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zidasungidwa kale ndi mapulojekiti ogwiritsira ntchito. Komabe, zenizeni zingakhale zovuta kwambiri. Kwa makampani osungira mphamvu omwe adasaina kale mapangano otsika mtengo, kukwera kwamitengo ya lithiamu kumatanthauza kuwonjezereka kwamitengo ndi kufinya phindu. Ngakhale ntchito zitayambikanso, zitha kukumana ndi chiwopsezo chotayika.

Kuphatikiza apo, kukula kwa ntchito zosungira mphamvu sikungodalira mitengo ya lithiamu komanso pazinthu zosiyanasiyana, kuphatikiza mfundo, mpikisano wamsika, komanso luso laukadaulo. Lithium carbonate imapanga 40% ya mtengo wa mabatire a lithiamu iron phosphate, ndipo kusinthasintha kwake kwamitengo kumakhudza kwambiri kuthekera kwachuma kwamakina osungira mphamvu. Akuti pa 10,000 yuan / tani iliyonse yowonjezereka pamitengo ya lithiamu carbonate, ndalama zosungira mphamvu zamagetsi zimawonjezeka ndi pafupifupi 0.05 yuan / Wh ndipo mtengo wa dongosolo ndi 0.08-0.1 yuan / Wh. Pakadali pano, mapulojekiti osungira mphamvu nthawi zambiri amadalira thandizo ndi kusiyana kwamitengo yamagetsi kuti apindule, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale chidwi chokwera kwambiri. Ntchito zazikuluzikulu zamalonda ndi zamafakitale ndi mafakitale opangira magetsi okwera pansi ndizovuta kwambiri pamitengo. Kusinthasintha kwamitengo ya lithiamu kungayambitse kusinthasintha kwamitengo yosungiramo mphamvu zamagetsi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ntchitoyo ichedwe chifukwa cha ma IRR otsika (mitengo yamkati yobwerera). Mwaukadaulo, pofika chaka cha 2025, ma cell a batri a 500+Ah adzakhala atapanga zambiri. Kuchedwetsa ndi kuyimirira kwa ntchito zina zosungira mphamvu kumayamba chifukwa cha kutha kwa mphamvu zopangira zakale chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo, komanso kusinthasintha kwamitengo ya lithiamu sikukhudza kwenikweni.

Kuwunika kwa kusinthasintha kwamitengo ya lithiamu kukuwonetsa kuti mitengo ya lithiamu nthawi zambiri imakhala zaka ziwiri kapena zitatu, koma kuchuluka kwamitengo kumeneku kumakhala kosiyana kwambiri ndi komwe kunachitika mu 2023, ndipo kukhudzidwa kwamakampani osungira mphamvu sikungakhale kwakukulu. Izi zimachitika makamaka chifukwa chakukula kwamphamvu kwa lithiamu padziko lonse lapansi. Pofika chaka cha 2025, mphamvu yopangira lifiyamu yapadziko lonse lapansi ipitilira matani 2 miliyoni a LCE (yofanana ndi lithiamu carbonate), zolosera zakufunika kwambiri. Kutsika kwamitengo kwanthawi yayitali ndizotheka. Chachiwiri, malo opikisana nawo pamakampani osungira mphamvu ayamba kuwoneka, pomwe gawo la msika likukhazikika m'makampani otsogola. Maoda akusefukira, ndipo mphamvu yopangira imagwiritsidwa ntchito mokwanira. Kusunga makasitomala ndi gawo la msika, makampaniwa akuyesera kuchepetsa kusinthasintha kwamitengo ya lithiamu pamitengo yazinthu.

Mwachitsanzo, makampani otsogola monga CATL ndi BYD atsekera muzinthu za lithiamu kudzera m'mapangano anthawi yayitali kuti achepetse chiopsezo chokwera mtengo. Kuchokera pamalingaliro a ndondomeko, kuchokera ku mapulani apamwamba kupita ku mautumiki ndi ma komiti oyenerera, misonkhano yambiri yachitika chaka chino kuti athetse nkhondo zamtengo wapatali ndi mpikisano wosinthika. Lamulo la Mpikisano Wopanda Chilungamo lomwe langowunikiridwa kumene limaletsa nkhondo zamitengo zomwe zili pansi pa mtengo wake, ndipo Zosintha Zosintha ku Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment) zimayang'aniranso machitidwe olakwika amitengo. Ndondomekozi zapanga malo abwino kuti abwererenso mpikisano womveka mkati mwa njira zopangira zinthu zopangira komanso makampani osungira mphamvu. Kwa zaka ziwiri zapitazi, makampani osungiramo mphamvu akukumana ndi kukula kosasunthika, kudalira mitengo yotsika ndi zothandizira kuti atenge gawo la msika.

Tsopano, kukwera kwamitengo ya lithiamu kwasokoneza kuwira uku, kusamutsa msika kuchoka pakukula kwa sikelo kupita ku mpikisano wamtengo wapatali. Kwa makampani osungira mphamvu, pamene kukwera kwa mitengo ya lithiamu kwachititsa kuti pakhale kusatsimikizika kochuluka kwa makampani, chiyembekezo cha nthawi yaitali cha chitukuko chake chimakhalabe chodalirika. M'tsogolomu, makampani omwe ali mumsika wamakampani ayenera kuyang'ana kwambiri zaukadaulo, kuwongolera mtengo, komanso kukulitsa msika, kulimbikitsa mgwirizano ndi makampani okwera ndi otsika, kukhazikitsa njira yokhazikika yoperekera zinthu, ndikuchepetsa kuopsa komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kusinthasintha kwamitengo. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, akuyenera kukulitsa misika yakunja, makamaka misika yomwe ikubwera monga Middle East, Australia, ndi Africa, kuti apeze malo atsopano okulirapo, kuonjezera ndalama zafukufuku ndi chitukuko chaukadaulo, ndikuwongolera magwiridwe antchito ndi mpikisano kuti agwirizane ndi kusintha kwa msika.